Constructing Plausible Worst-Case Scenarios for UK Hydrological Drought

Hydrological drought poses a significant risk to society, threatening water availability and challenging the resilience of water management systems. This PhD project at the University of Reading, within the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, aims to advance the understanding and management of UK hydrological drought by constructing plausible worst-case scenarios. The research will reconcile two key approaches in water risk management: setting resilience standards based on event return periods and stress testing using physical climate storylines. Droughts are complex, with diverse onset patterns and durations, influenced by multiple land and atmospheric drivers. The project will develop a set of worst-case scenarios for UK drought, using historical data and downward counterfactuals to imagine events that could have been more severe under different conditions. These scenarios will be rigorously assessed for probability using Bayesian statistical methods, and their sensitivity to climate change will be explored. The student will benefit from comprehensive training through the EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in the Mathematics for our Future Climate (MFC CDT), gaining expertise in climate science, physical sciences, scientific computing, statistics, and data analysis. The programme also offers personal and professional development opportunities and access to a broad network of academic, research, and industrial partners. A unique aspect of this project is the collaboration with Anglian Water, where the student will undertake placements, receive training in hydrological and water resources system modelling, and participate in drought risk assessment and planning. This partnership provides practical experience and exposure to technical and regulatory aspects of water management. The successful candidate will join a cohort of PhD students sponsored by Anglian Water, fostering interdisciplinary collaboration and complementary research opportunities. The project is fully funded, including a UKRI stipend and home-level PhD tuition fees. Applicants should have a strong background in mathematics, statistics, environmental science, earth science, or related fields, with quantitative and analytical skills. Experience or interest in climate science, hydrology, and data analysis is highly desirable. International applicants may need to demonstrate English language proficiency. Applications are accepted year round. For further details, refer to the project page and relevant references, including recent research on climate storylines and hydrological drought modelling. This opportunity is ideal for candidates passionate about applying quantitative methods to real-world environmental challenges and contributing to the resilience of UK water systems in the face of climate change.