To collapse or not: the stability of the AMOC in a warming climate

Project Title: To collapse or not: the stability of the AMOC in a warming climate This PhD opportunity at the University of Bristol, in collaboration with the Met Office and the University of Liverpool, investigates the future stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—a key driver of global climate, weather, and sea-level change. Despite climate models projecting a weakening AMOC under global warming, the risk of a full collapse remains uncertain and is one of the most urgent open questions in climate science. The project aims to understand what controls AMOC stability, how it may change over the 21st century, and how observations and models can reduce uncertainty. The student will work with leading ocean-climate scientists, combining two complementary approaches: monitoring AMOC signals in boundary density and pressure, and applying an overturning pathways framework to explore connections between the Atlantic, Indo-Pacific, and Southern Oceans. Research methods include analysis of sea level, ocean-bottom pressure, hydrographic and current observations, and climate model diagnostics. Students will have the opportunity to shape the direction of their research, with options ranging from developing physics-informed AI methods to running ocean simulations using advanced tools such as Oceananigans. Training will cover advanced climate data analysis, Earth observation, high-performance computing (HPC), AI, coding, and data science, supported by close mentoring from experts at Bristol, the Met Office, and Liverpool. A collaborative placement at the Met Office will provide hands-on training in AMOC pathway diagnostics, access to climate model runs and observational archives, and opportunities to attend in-house courses, including AI in climate science. Eligibility: Applicants should have a strong academic background in environmental science, earth science, geography, oceanography, physics, mathematics, or computer science. Experience or interest in climate science, data analysis, coding, or AI is desirable. English language proficiency is required. Application: The deadline for applications is 8 January 2026. Prospective students should apply via the University of Bristol postgraduate portal and may contact Dr Rory Bingham ([email protected]) for project-specific enquiries. For further details, consult the Bristol NERC GW4+ DTP Prospectus. Links: Bristol NERC GW4+ DTP Prospectus , Application Portal , FindAPhD Listing