Georg Heinze

Background and Aims Patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) have a high recurrence risk, and guidelines suggest extended-phase anticoagulation. Many patients never experience recurrence but are exposed to bleeding. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the Vienna Prediction Model (VPM) and to evaluate if the VPM accurately identifies these patients. Methods In patients with unprovoked VTE, the VPM was performed 3 weeks after anticoagulation withdrawal. Those with a predicted 1-year recurrence risk of ≤5.5% were prospectively followed. Study endpoint was recurrent VTE over 2 years. Results A total of 818 patients received anticoagulation for a median of 3.9 months. 520 patients (65%) had a predicted annual recurrence risk of ≤5.5%. During a median time of 23.9 months, 52 patients had non-fatal recurrence. The recurrence risk was 5.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.2–7.2] at 1 year and 11.2% (95% CI 8.3–14) at 2 years. Model calibration was adequate after 1 year. The VPM underestimated the recurrence risk of patients with a 2-year recurrence rate of >5%. In a post-hoc analysis, the VPM’s baseline hazard was recalibrated. Bootstrap validation confirmed an ideal ratio of observed and expected recurrence events. The recurrence risk was highest in men with proximal deep-vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism and lower in women regardless of the site of incident VTE. Conclusions In this prospective evaluation of the performance of the VPM, the 1-year rate of recurrence in patients with unprovoked VTE was 5.2%. Recalibration improved identification of patients at low recurrence risk and stratification into distinct low-risk categories.

Background Kidney transplantation is the preferred treatment for eligible patients with kidney failure who need renal replacement therapy. However, it remains unclear whether the anticipated survival benefit from kidney transplantation is different for women and men. Methods We included all dialysis patients recorded in the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry who were waitlisted for their first kidney transplant between 2000 and 2018. In order to estimate the causal effect of kidney transplantation on 10-year restricted mean survival time, we mimicked a series of controlled clinical trials and applied inverse probability of treatment and censoring weighted sequential Cox models. Results This study included 4408 patients (33% female) with a mean age of 52 years. Glomerulonephritis was the most common primary renal disease both in women (27%) and men (28%). Kidney transplantation led to a gain of 2.22 years (95% CI 1.88 to 2.49) compared with dialysis over a 10-year follow-up. The effect was smaller in women (1.95 years, 95% CI 1.38 to 2.41) than in men (2.35 years, 95% CI 1.92 to 2.70) due to a better survival on dialysis. Across ages the survival benefit of transplantation over a follow-up of 10 years was smaller in younger women and men and increased with age, showing a peak for both women and men aged about 60 years. Conclusions There were few differences in survival benefit by transplantation between females and males. Females had better survival than males on the waitlist receiving dialysis and similar survival to males after transplantation.