Beyond Forecasting: Using MRP (Multi-level Regression with Post-stratification) to Investigate Minority Political Behaviour The University of Manchester in United Kingdom

This PhD opportunity at The University of Manchester focuses on advancing the use of multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) to investigate minority political behaviour in the UK. MRP is a cutting-edge statistical technique widely used in modern election coverage, enabling researchers to model voting patterns and predict outcomes at the constituency level by combining large-scale public opinion polls with census data. While MRP is often applied to election forecasting, this project aims to leverage its power to address a critical challenge: accurately gauging the opinions of smaller, underrepresented groups, such as ethnic minorities, whose views are often missed by conventional polling methods.

The successful candidate will analyse unique data from Ipsos, a market-leading polling organisation, using their gold-standard Knowledge Panel dataset. This panel is notable for its representative sampling and longitudinal data collection on political changes since 2020. The student will learn and apply sophisticated MRP methodologies to answer substantive questions about British electoral behaviour, particularly focusing on how ethnic minorities have voted in recent elections. The project includes a placement embedded within Ipsos’s in-house research section, providing hands-on experience and the opportunity to integrate MRP methods into the Knowledge Panel’s workflow. The nominated supervisor at Ipsos, who set up and manages the Knowledge Panel, offers unparalleled insight into its design and operation.

Applicants should have a strong background in quantitative methods, with academic criteria including a Bachelor's (Honours) degree at 2:1 or above and a Master's degree in a relevant subject with high marks. Exceptional candidates with only a Bachelor's degree may be considered for 1+3 funding. English language proficiency is required, with specific minimum scores for IELTS, TOEFL, or Pearson tests. The University of Manchester values diversity and actively encourages applicants from all backgrounds.

The ESRC NWSSDTP CASE Award with Ipsos provides full UKRI tuition fees, an annual stipend (£21,805 for 2026/27), and an uplift for computing resources. The studentship commences in September 2026. Applicants must submit a complete application online, including transcripts, certificates, academic CV, supporting statement, writing sample, and two academic referees. The deadline for applications is April 7, 2026. For further information or questions, contact Dr Nicole Martin at [email protected].

References for further reading include works by Ghitza & Gelman (2013), Hanretty (2020), Martin (2019), and Wang et al. (2015), which provide foundational insights into MRP and its application to electoral studies.