Aled Jones

The European Green Deal comprises various policy initiatives with the goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The “Fit for 55 packages” include the Social Climate Fund, which aims to help, among others, vulnerable households and transport users meet the costs of the green energy transition. Thus, analyzing households’ expenditures and the associated carbon emissions is crucial to achieving a net-zero society. In the present study, we combine scenarios of households’ expenditures according to the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose with economic decoupling scenarios to assess, for the first time, the European carbon budget allocation on a consumption basis. Expenditure projections based on socioeconomic scenarios were calculated using the Bayesian structural time series, and the associated emissions were estimated through the greenhouse gas intensity of the Gross Domestic Product. The model can be used to report the carbon budget of households and monitor the effectiveness of the measures funded by the Social Climate Fund. However, the emissions burden obtained by means of averaged greenhouse gas intensity of Gross Domestic Product results in a rough approximation of outcomes, and more accurate indicators should be developed across the member states.