Andre E. Punt

Knowledge about the demographic and environmental factors underlying population dynamics is fundamental to designing effective conservation measures to recover depleted wildlife populations. However, sparse monitoring data or persistent knowledge gaps about threats make it difficult to identify the drivers of population dynamics. In situations where small, declining, or depleted populations show continued evidence of decline for unknown reasons, integrated population models can make efficient use of available data to improve our understanding of demography, provide fundamental insights into factors that may be limiting recovery, and support conservation decisions. We used mark‐resight and aerial survey data from 2004 to 2018 to build a Bayesian integrated population model for the Cook Inlet population of beluga whales ( Delphinapterus leucas ), which is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We examined the effects of prey availability and oceanographic conditions on beluga vital rates and conducted a population viability analysis to predict extinction risk across a range of hypothetical changes in beluga survival and reproduction. Our results indicated that while the survival of breeding females (0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99) and young calves (0.92; 0.80–0.98) was relatively high, the survival of nonbreeders (0.94; 0.91–0.97) and fecundity (0.28; 0.22–0.36) may be depressed. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the population will likely continue to decline, with a 17–32% probability of extinction in 150 years. Our model highlights the utility of integrated population modeling for maximizing the usefulness of available data and identifying factors contributing to the failure of protected populations to recover. This framework can be used to evaluate proposed conservation and recovery efforts for this and other endangered species.

Climate change is projected to affect the productivity of global fisheries. Management based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY) has been effective at eliminating overfishing in many regions. However, continuing to use yield‐maximizing targets under climate‐driven changes in productivity can result in higher anthropogenic pressure on populations subject to climate‐related stress than maintaining status quo management targets. We demonstrate this effect using a theoretical example and case studies from snow crab in the eastern Bering Sea and a global marine fisheries database. In these examples, the conservation gain (i.e. biomass in the ocean) of maintaining status quo management targets is larger than the small gain in harvest made through climate adaptation in MSY‐based management. The aggregate conservation gain of maintaining management targets increases as the harmful impacts of climate change on productivity worsen. Instead of climate‐adaptive MSY‐based targets, new management tools are needed to balance conservation and food production in ecosystems of populations displaying non‐stationary productivity.