Andrew Hill

Background The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 083/084 trials showed up to 88% increased efficacy of long-acting cabotegravir (CAB-LA) versus continuous oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC). However, CAB-LA's high price limits the number of people who can be treated within fixed prevention budgets. Global human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention budgets are highly limited, with TDF/FTC widely available as a low-cost generic. In randomized clinical trials, event-driven TDF/FTC has shown similar preventive efficacy to continuous TDF/FTC. Methods A systematic review of global HIV incidence studies was conducted. Weighted incidence was calculated in each at-risk population. HIV infection rates were evaluated for 5 prevention strategies, with additional HIV testing, education, and service access costs assumed for each ($18 per person per year). Assumed efficacies were 90% (continuous CAB-LA), 60% (continuous TDF/FTC), and 60% (event-driven TDF/FTC). Using weighted incidence and an assumed 100 000 target population, annual HIV infection rates by population were calculated for each prevention strategy. Results Ninety-eight studies in 5 230 189 individuals were included. Incidence per 100 person-years ranged from 0.03 (blood donors) to 3.82 (people who inject drugs). Using the number needed to treat to benefit for each strategy, a mean incidence of 2.6 per 100 person-years in at-risk populations, and a 100 000 target population, current-price continuous CAB-LA cost $949 487 per HIV infection successfully prevented, followed by target-price CAB-LA ($11 453), continuous TDF/FTC ($4231), and event-driven TDF/FTC ($1923). Conclusions High prices of CAB-LA limit numbers treatable within fixed budgets. Low-cost event-driven TDF/FTC consistently prevents the most HIV infections within fixed budgets.