Brian Beckage

Soil process models such as RothC typically assume soil organic carbon (SOC) is in equilibrium at the beginning of each simulation run. This is not likely to be true in the real world, since recalcitrant SOC pools (notably, humified material) take many decades to re-stabilize after a land use change. The equilibrium assumption stems from a spinup method in which the model is run under a single land use until all SOC pools stabilize. To overcome this, we demonstrate an alternative spinup procedure that accounts for historical land use changes. The “steady-state” and “historical” spinup methods both impute unknown C inputs such that the modeled SOC matches empirical measurements at the beginning of the simulation and set initial SOC fractions. Holding all other parameters equal, we evaluated how each spinup affects SOC projections in simulations of agricultural land use change in the U.S. state of Vermont. We found that projected SOC trajectories for all land use scenarios are sensitive to the spinup procedure. These differences are due to disparities in imputed below-ground plant-derived carbon between the two procedures. Compared to the steady-state, imputed C in the historical spinup is higher for land uses that increase SOC (e.g., adoption of regenerative practices) and lower for land uses that decrease SOC (e.g., a transition from pasture to crops), due to the time window within which land use changes are assumed to have occurred. The novel historical spinup procedure captures important dynamics commonly missing in previous studies, representing an advancement in soil process modeling.