Christian Hof

Aim Temperature is one of the main drivers shaping species diversity and assembly processes. Yet, site‐specific effects of the local microclimate on species and trait compositions of insect communities have rarely been assessed along macroclimatic temperature clines. Location Bavarian Alps, Germany. Methods Bayesian joint species distribution models were applied to investigate how ecological and morphological traits drive variation in the climatic niches of 32 Orthoptera species on 93 grassland sites with contrasting microclimatic conditions along a steep elevational macroclimatic gradient in an Alpine region in Central Europe. Results Species richness and abundance decreased along the elevational macroclimatic gradient, and both benefitted from warm microclimate. Interactive effects of elevation and microclimate on the abundance were, however, species‐specific, and partly mediated by traits: Warm microclimatic conditions facilitated the occurrence of demanding xerophilic and late‐hatching species, resulting in marked community dissimilarities at mid‐elevations where colder sites harboured only a subset of the species. The latter mainly occurred at low elevations together with long‐winged species. Abundance peaks of non‐xerophilic species were further upslope when microclimate was warm. Intraspecifically, the body sizes and wing lengths of the larger females, but not the males, decreased with elevation akin the community mean, and brown colour morphs were more frequent at sites with warm microclimate. Main Conclusions Our nuanced results reveal that trait‐dependent responses of species to microclimate play a key role in the assembly and structuring of insect communities along macroclimatic gradients. Since microclimate preferences changed with elevation, we conclude that species temperature niches are narrower than the elevational range suggests and both macro‐ and microclimatic conditions must be considered when predicting species responses to climate change. Microclimatic contrasts among sites at similar elevations enhanced species turnover mediated by moisture preferences and phenology, highlighting the importance of mountains for conservation as climatic refugia where species with diverging niches can persist in proximity.

Evaluating the impact of future changes in land-use and climate on species communities, especially species richness, is one of the most important challenges of current research in ecology and conservation. The impact of environmental changes on species richness depends on its sensitivity ( i.e ., how strongly a given level of change influences the ecological community) and its exposure ( i.e ., the amount of change that occurs). To examine the sensitivity, exposure, and potential impact of future environmental conditions on bird communities, we compiled data on bird species richness for Pakistan—a neglected region in macro- or country-scale studies. Since bird species richness strongly varies across seasons due to the seasonal occurrence of migratory species in winter, we compared both wintering (migratory plus resident species) and breeding (resident species only) bird richness. We found breeding and wintering species richness to be sensitive to temperature, precipitation and rainfed cropland by being positively related to these factors. Exposure varied regionally, with projected temperature changes being most profound in northern regions while the strongest projected precipitation changes occurred in central and southern regions. The projected impact of future environmental change were highly heterogeneous across the country and differed between the wintering and breeding communities. Overall, the most negatively impacted region was projected to be the Khyber Pakhtunkha province in the North of Pakistan, due to reductions in precipitation and rainfed cropland, resulting in a projected negative impact, especially on wintering species richness. By highlighting the regional and seasonal bird communities most at risk, our findings provide useful information for policy makers to help devise new policies for mitigating negative impacts of future environmental changes on birds within Pakistan.