Christopher D. Collier

Background The histologic response of osteosarcoma to chemotherapy is commonly cited as a prognostic factor and typically graded as the percent necrosis of the tumor at the time of surgical resection. Few studies, to our knowledge, have examined the relationship of tumor necrosis relative to other factors. Existing studies are limited by prolonged enrollment periods or analysis of patient subsets without the strongest predictor of mortality: metastasis at diagnosis. Additionally, the definitive threshold value for a good histologic response is commonly set at more than 90% tumor necrosis with little evidence; some authors advocate other values. Question/purposes (1) Are there alternative cutoff values for a good response to chemotherapy in a large, national cohort of contemporarily treated patients with osteosarcoma? (2) How does the association of histologic response to survival in osteosarcoma compare with other clinicopathologic factors? (3) What patient and clinical factors are associated with the histologic response? Methods We identified 2006 patients with osteosarcoma diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 in the National Cancer Database (NCDB), a registry that includes 70% of all new cancers diagnosed in the United States with 90% follow-up. Patients were excluded for missing documentation of percent tumor necrosis (21% [425 of 2006]) or if definitive resection was not performed (< 1% [1 of 2006]). A total of 1580 patients were included in the analysis, with a mean follow-up duration of 37 ± 22 months. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, stratified by the percent tumor necrosis after chemotherapy, was performed for the 5-year period. Other covariates examined were sex, race, socioeconomic score composite, insurance type, Charlson/Deyo score, distance from the hospital, and location (metropolitan, urban, or rural). Clinical and sociodemographic data including patient-identified race from the patient’s medical record is input into the NCDB by certified registrars. The NCDB only allows coding of one primary race for each patient; thus, most of our patients were grouped as White or Black race and the remaining were grouped as Other for our analysis. A multiple Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of percent necrosis compared with other demographic, clinicopathologic, and treatment effects on survival. Finally, a multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to assess demographic and clinicopathologic characteristics associated with percent necrosis. Results Five-year overall survival for patients with histologic gradings of 90% to 94% necrosis (70% [95% confidence interval (CI) 60.6% to 79.7%) and 95% to 100% necrosis (74% [95% CI 68% to 80.3%) was not different between groups (p = 0.47). A comparison of histologic responses below 90% necrosis found no difference in survival between patients with decreasing histologic response (p > 0.05). Necrosis of less than 90% was associated with worse survival (HR 2.00 [95% CI 1.58 to 2.52]; p < 0.001 compared with more than 90% necrosis), and factors most associated with poor survival were metastasis (HR 2.85 [95% CI 2.27 to 3.59]; p < 0.001) and skip metastasis at the time of diagnosis (HR 2.52 [95% CI 1.64 to 3.88]; p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, adjusting for demographic, clinicopathologic, and treatment factors, social determinants of health were negatively associated with percent necrosis of 90% or more, including uninsured status (OR 0.46 [95% CI 0.23 to 0.92]; p = 0.02 compared with private insurance) an