Daniel Friedrich

Rising temperatures, increase in population, and dense urban morphology have resulted in increased cooling energy demands. The conventional degree-days method to calculate cooling energy demand considers only the sensible heat load of air and neglects the latent component. This study aims to estimate the cooling degree days based on the heat index (by considering both the sensible and latent loads) for the current and future years (2050 and 2080). Further, the ventilation load index for each of these cities has been established to unlock the impact of ventilation on the building’s total energy consumption for current and future years. The results show that heat index-based degree days have a stronger relationship with the buildings’ cooling energy consumption and, therefore, can predict the cooling energy demand of buildings with 20% higher accuracy than conventional temperature-based degree days. Analysis shows that cooling degree-days and frequency of temperature above the comfort range continue to increase in Pakistan, highlighting increased degree-days in the range from 11.0 to 41.6% by 2050 and from 28.4 to 126.5% by 2080. Prompt actions are essential to enhance the resilience of Pakistan’s national grid to meet these future cooling energy demands.