Emil Alexov

The development of methods and algorithms to predict the effect of mutations on protein stability, protein–protein interaction, and protein–DNA/RNA binding is necessitated by the needs of protein engineering and for understanding the molecular mechanism of disease-causing variants. The vast majority of the leading methods require a database of experimentally measured folding and binding free energy changes for training. These databases are collections of experimental data taken from scientific investigations typically aimed at probing the role of particular residues on the above-mentioned thermodynamic characteristics, i.e., the mutations are not introduced at random and do not necessarily represent mutations originating from single nucleotide variants (SNV). Thus, the reported performance of the leading algorithms assessed on these databases or other limited cases may not be applicable for predicting the effect of SNVs seen in the human population. Indeed, we demonstrate that the SNVs and non-SNVs are not equally presented in the corresponding databases, and the distribution of the free energy changes is not the same. It is shown that the Pearson correlation coefficients (PCCs) of folding and binding free energy changes obtained in cases involving SNVs are smaller than for non-SNVs, indicating that caution should be used in applying them to reveal the effect of human SNVs. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that some methods are sensitive to the chemical nature of the mutations, resulting in PCCs that differ by a factor of four across chemically different mutations. All methods are found to underestimate the energy changes by roughly a factor of 2.