François Roubille

Background: Acute heart failure (AHF) represents a leading cause of unscheduled hospital stays, frequent rehospitalisations, and mortality worldwide. The aim of our study was to develop a bedside prognostic tool, a multivariable predictive risk score, that is useful in daily practice, thus providing an early prognostic evaluation at admission and an accurate risk stratification after discharge in patients with AHF. Methods: This study is a subanalysis of the STADE HF study, which is a single-centre, prospective, randomised controlled trial enrolling 123 patients admitted to hospital for AHF. Here, 117 patients were included in the analysis, due to data exhaustivity. Regression analysis was performed to determine predictive variables for one-year mortality and/or rehospitalisation after discharge. Results: During the first year after discharge, 23 patients died. After modellisation, the variables considered to be of prognostic relevance in terms of mortality were (1) non-ischaemic aetiology of HF, (2) elevated creatinine levels at admission, (3) moderate/severe mitral regurgitation, and (4) prior HF hospitalisation. We designed a linear model based on these four independent predictive variables, and it showed a good ability to score and predict patient mortality with an AUC of 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76–0.92), thus denoting a high discriminative ability. A risk score equation was developed. During the first year after discharge, we observed as well that 41 patients died or were rehospitalised; hence, while searching for a model that could predict worsening health conditions (i.e., death and/or rehospitalisation), only two predictive variables were identified: non-ischaemic HF aetiology and previous HF hospitalisation (also included in the one-year mortality model). This second modellisation showed a more discrete discriminative ability with an AUC of 0.67 (95% C.I. 0.59–0.77). Conclusions: The proposed risk score and model, based on readily available predictive variables, are promising and useful tools to assess, respectively, the one-year mortality risk and the one-year mortality and/or rehospitalisations in patients hospitalised for AHF and to assist clinicians in the management of patients with HF aiming at improving their prognosis.

Background: While admission of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) in cardiology intensive care unit (CICU) is usual, in-hospital major outcomes in lower risk patients may be evaluated after early coronary angiography according to the European guidelines. Methods: Consecutive ACS patients were prospectively included after coronary angiography evaluation within 24 h and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), when required. Patients were classified as high- or low-risk according to hemodynamics, rhythmic state, ischemic and bleeding risks. Major in-hospital outcomes were assessed. Results: From January to June 2021, 277 patients were enrolled (62.8% with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) (n = 174); 37.2% with non-NSTEMI (NSTEMI) (n = 103). PCI was required for 260 patients (93.9%). Seventy-four patients (26.7%) were classified as low-risk (n = 47 NSTEMI; n= 27 STEMI) and 203 patients (73.3%) as high-risk of events. All patients were monitored in CICU. While 38 patients (18.7%) from the high-risk group reached the primary endpoint, mainly related to rhythmic or conduction disorder (n = 24, 11.8%) or unstable hemodynamics (n = 17; 8.4%), only 1 patient (1.3%) in the low-risk group had one major outcome (no fatal bleeding); p < 0.01. The negative predictive value of our patient stratification for the absence of major in-hospital outcome was 100% (CI95%: 100–100%) for STEMI and 97.9% [CI95%: 93.2–100%] for NSTEMI patients. Conclusions: Stratification of ACS patients after early coronary angiography and most of the time PCI, identify a population with very low risk of in-hospital events (1/4 of all ACS and 1/2 of NSTEMI) who may probably not require ECG monitoring and/or CICU admission. (NCT04378504).