Helder Fraga

Grasslands are key elements of the global agricultural system, covering around two-thirds of all agricultural areas and playing an important role in biodiversity conservation, food security, and balancing the carbon cycle. Climate change is a growing challenge for the agricultural sector and may threaten grasslands. To address these challenges, it is vital to conduct in-depth climate studies to understand the vulnerability of grasslands. In this study, machine learning was used to build an advanced model able to evaluate the future impact of climate change on grassland vigour. The objective was to identify the most vulnerable grassland areas, analyse the interaction between climate and grassland performance, and outline management strategies against the detrimental implications of climate change. A Random Forest (RF) regression was used to model the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) using the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The model explained 76% of the NDVI variability. The foremost significant predictors of grassland vigour are the SPEI with temporal lags of 1, 4, and 12 months. These findings suggest that the vegetative status of grasslands exhibits high sensitivity to short-term drought while also being influenced by the memory of past climatic events over longer periods. Future projections indicate an overall reduction in grassland vigour, mostly in RCP8.5. The results indicate that negative effects will be more pronounced in mountainous regions, which currently host the most vigorous grasslands. Dry lowlands in the north should continue to have the lowest vigour in the future. A substantial reduction in vigour is expected in autumn, with an effect on grassland phenology. The development of grasslands in winter, favoured by increasing temperatures and precipitation, can advance the harvesting of grassland (cutting) and the grazing of livestock. To ensure that vigour is maintained in less favourable zones, adaptation measures will be needed, as well as more efficient management of highlands to provide an adequate level of production.