Helen J. Burgess

Background While sleep and circadian rhythms are recognized contributors to the risk for alcohol use and related problems, few studies have examined whether objective sleep and circadian measures can predict future alcohol use in humans, and no such studies have been conducted in adults. This study examined whether any baseline sleep and/or circadian characteristics of otherwise healthy adults predicted their alcohol use over the subsequent 12 months. Methods Participants (21–42 years) included 28 light and 50 heavy drinkers. At baseline, a comprehensive range of self‐reported and objective sleep/circadian measures was assessed via questionnaires, wrist actigraphy, and measurement of dim light melatonin onset and circadian photoreceptor responsivity. Following this, the number of alcoholic drinks per week and binge drinking episodes per month were assessed quarterly over the subsequent 12 months. Anticipated effects of alcohol (stimulation, sedation, and rewarding aspects) were also assessed quarterly over the 12 months. Analyses included generalized linear mixed‐effects models and causal mediation analysis. Results Across the range of measures, only self‐reported insomnia symptoms and a longer total sleep time at baseline predicted more drinks per week and binges per month ( p s <0.02). There was a trend for the anticipated alcohol effect of wanting more alcohol at the 6‐month timepoint to mediate the relationship between insomnia symptoms at baseline and drinks per week at 12 months ( p = 0.069). Conclusions These results suggest that in otherwise healthy adults, insomnia symptoms, even if subclinical, are a significant predictor of future drinking, and appear to outweigh the influence of circadian factors on future drinking, at least in otherwise healthy adults. Insomnia symptoms may be a modifiable target for reducing the risk of alcohol misuse.