Håvard Hegre

The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) is seeking applications for a Senior Researcher or Postdoctoral Researcher to join the ANTICIPATE ERC Grant project, focusing on forecasting armed conflict and its impacts on human development. The successful candidate will work in a leading international research institution with a strong interdisciplinary environment, developing advanced machine learning models and forecasting systems. The project is led by Research Professor Håvard Hegre, a recognized expert in conflict prediction and statistical modeling. Key responsibilities include developing new forecasting models and methods, leading the design and improvement of ensemble routines and validation protocols in the VIEWS forecasting system, publishing research in top peer-reviewed journals, collaborating with developers and social science researchers, supervising junior researchers, and engaging with academic and policy communities. The position requires a PhD in a relevant field (such as political science, statistics, computer science, informatics, or economics), strong programming skills in Python, experience with ML/statistics libraries, a proven research track record, and excellent English communication skills. Desirable qualifications include experience with time series and probabilistic forecasting, Bayesian approaches, handling large or unstructured data, and text-as-data methods. The position is a 1.5-year, full-time temporary contract funded by the ERC Advanced Grant, with salary based on qualifications and experience. PRIO offers a supportive work environment, membership in the Norwegian Public Service Pension Fund, a subsidized canteen, social events, and is located in central Oslo, Norway. On-site presence is required. PRIO values diversity and is an equal-opportunity employer. To apply, candidates must submit an application letter, up to three academic writing samples, a CV with publications and GitHub link, transcripts, and contact details for three references via PRIO’s online form by 15 January 2026. For more information, contact Research Professor Håvard Hegre at [email protected] or visit the PRIO website. Relevant academic keywords include conflict forecasting, machine learning, statistical modeling, social sciences, human development, ensemble methods, Bayesian approaches, time series analysis, probabilistic forecasting, and text-as-data. The position is ideal for researchers interested in advancing the methodological foundations of conflict prediction and contributing to impactful interdisciplinary research.