Ivan Sudakow

The analysis of spatial and temporal variability in the number of non-Gaussian extreme anomalies of climatic parameters was carried out for both the initial time series and synoptic variability in the troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere over the period 1979–2018, based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data. There are predominantly three types of empirical distribution densities at 850 hPa, each characterizing the processes of advective and convective heat transfer. At the beginning of the 21st century, compared to the end of the 20th century, there was an increase in the number of anomalies in vertical wind speed and specific humidity for the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, there is an increase in the number of zonal wind speed anomalies in the low and middle latitudes. Regions with the maximum number of anomalies are primarily located over the continents, while for vertical wind speed anomalies, they are predominantly over the oceans. The application of R/S analysis and multifractal analysis has established that the identified tendencies (which are persistent processes) will continue in the identified regions. The time series of non-Gaussian anomalies (both initial and synoptic scales) exhibit a long-term memory of approximately four years, and synoptic extreme anomalies were found to be more predictable.

Permafrost tundra contains more than twice as much carbon as is currently in the atmosphere, and it is warming six times as fast as the global mean. Tundra lakes dynamics is a robust indicator of global climate processes, and is still not well understood. Satellite data, particularly, from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is a suitable tool for tundra lakes recognition and monitoring of their changes. However, manual analysis of lake boundaries can be slow and inefficient; therefore, reliable automated algorithms are required. To address this issue, we propose a two-stage approach, comprising instance deep-learning-based segmentation by U-Net, followed by semantic segmentation based on a watershed algorithm for separating touching and overlapping lakes. Implementation of this concept is essential for accurate sizes and shapes estimation of an individual lake. Here, we evaluated the performance of the proposed approach on lakes, manually extracted from tens of C-band SAR images from Sentinel-1, which were collected in the Yamal Peninsula and Alaska areas in the summer months of 2015–2022. An accuracy of 0.73, in terms of the Jaccard similarity index, was achieved. The lake’s perimeter, area and fractal sizes were estimated, based on the algorithm framework output from hundreds of SAR images. It was recognized as lognormal distributed. The evaluation of the results indicated the efficiency of the proposed approach for accurate automatic estimation of tundra lake shapes and sizes, and its potential to be used for further studies on tundra lake dynamics, in the context of global climate change, aimed at revealing new factors that could cause the planet to warm or cool.