Jeffrey N Chiang

Objectives To test the association between the initial red blood cell distribution width (RDW) value in the emergency department (ED) and hospital admission and, among those admitted, in-hospital mortality. Materials and Methods We perform a retrospective analysis of 210 930 adult ED visits with complete blood count results from March 2013 to February 2022. Primary outcomes were hospital admission and in-hospital mortality. Variables for each visit included demographics, comorbidities, vital signs, basic metabolic panel, complete blood count, and final diagnosis. The association of each outcome with the initial RDW value was calculated across 3 age groups (<45, 45–65, and >65) as well as across 374 diagnosis categories. Logistic regression (LR) and XGBoost models using all variables excluding final diagnoses were built to test whether RDW was a highly weighted and informative predictor for each outcome. Finally, simplified models using only age, sex, and vital signs were built to test whether RDW had additive predictive value. Results Compared to that of discharged visits (mean [SD]: 13.8 [2.03]), RDW was significantly elevated in visits that resulted in admission (15.1 [2.72]) and, among admissions, those resulting in intensive care unit stay (15.3 [2.88]) and/or death (16.8 [3.25]). This relationship held across age groups as well as across various diagnosis categories. An RDW >16 achieved 90% specificity for hospital admission, while an RDW >18.5 achieved 90% specificity for in-hospital mortality. LR achieved a test area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77–0.78) for hospital admission and 0.85 (95% CI 0.81–0.88) for in-hospital mortality, while XGBoost achieved a test AUC of 0.90 (95% CI 0.89–0.90) for hospital admission and 0.96 (95% CI 0.94–0.97) for in-hospital mortality. RDW had high scaled weights and information gain for both outcomes and had additive value in simplified models predicting hospital admission. Discussion Elevated RDW, previously associated with mortality in myocardial infarction, pulmonary embolism, heart failure, sepsis, and COVID-19, is associated with hospital admission and in-hospital mortality across all-cause adult ED visits. Used alone, elevated RDW may be a specific, but not sensitive, test for both outcomes, with multivariate LR and XGBoost models showing significantly improved test characteristics. Conclusions RDW, a component of the complete blood count panel routinely ordered as the initial workup for the undifferentiated patient, may be a generalizable biomarker for acuity in the ED.