John S. Schwartz

Probabilistic risk methods are becoming increasingly accepted as a means of carrying out risk-informed decision making regarding the design and operation policy of structures such as dams. Probabilistic risk calculations require the quantification of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties not investigated through deterministic methodologies. In this hydrological study, a stochastic sampling methodology is employed to investigate the joint failure probability of three dams in adjacent similarly sized watersheds within the same hydrologic unit code (HUC) 6 basin. A probabilistic flood hazard analysis (PFHA) framework is used to simulate the hydrologic loading of a range of extreme precipitation events across the combined watershed area of the three studied dams. Precipitation events are characterized by three distinct storm types influential in the Tennessee Valley region with implications for weather variability and climate change. The stochastic framework allows for the simulation of hundreds of thousands of spillway outflows that are used to produce empirical bivariate exceedance probabilities for spillway discharge pairs at selected dams. System response curves that indicate the probability of failure given spillway discharge are referenced for each dam and applied to generate empirical bivariate failure probability (joint failure probability) estimates. The stochastic simulation results indicate the range of spillway discharges for each pair of dams that pose the greatest risk of joint failure. The estimate of joint failure considering the dependence of spillway discharges between dams is shown to be three to four orders of magnitude more likely (7.42 × 102 to 5.68 × 103) than estimates that assume coincident failures are the result of independent hydrologic events.

This study applies the WaTEM/SEDEM model, a watershed-scale model based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), to enhance sustainable watershed management by identifying high-erosion-risk areas for targeted mitigation at various scales. It focuses on identifying potential errors in using statewide or worldwide land use data layers derived from remote-sensing algorithms and inaccuracies in the spatial distribution of cropland and soil types resulting in misinterpretation of sediment yields. These model limitations emphasize the need for field validation and precise input data, particularly stream data, to improve the reliability of these models. The study examines hydrologic rainfall-runoff processes in Tennessee’s 182 km2 Oostanaula catchment using various data sources, including the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), the European Space Agency WorldCover dataset (ESA), and manual field surveys. Three modeling scenarios were evaluated, with and without stream topology corrections, using the WaTEM/SEDEM model. It details the global data used, the methodology of the field survey, the simulation and validation of data, and the critical point identification. Significant discrepancies in long-term sediment transport predictions were found, depending on the land use data source. This study addresses watershed model validity and potential errors and recommendations for the use of globally available data.