John W. O’Neill

Hotels are generally perceived as the riskiest type of commercial real estate (CRE) investment because hotel “leases” have relatively high turnover. Existing literature regarding CRE investment risk and return lacks investigation of hotels at the unit level—which is the level of analysis undertaken by existing and prospective hotel investors. Two major types of hotels are branded and independent ones. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variability (risk) of key performance indicators (KPIs) such as occupancy rate, and revenues and profit of branded versus independent hotels. Using a large sample of performance data regarding over 4,000 U.S. hotel properties from 2000 to 2019, we examine the extent to which branding affects the volatility of KPIs. We find that brand-affiliated hotels have lower cash flow risk measured as lower volatilities of KPIs compared with independent ones. Furthermore, the level of volatility reduction of branded hotels is greater for profit than for revenue, and profit may be the most important KPI for hotel investors. The magnitude of volatility reduction also increases as the measurement window length (number of years) increases. We also study the long-term returns of branded versus independent hotels. This study contributes to the understanding regarding the relationships between investment risk of branded versus independent hotels, extends the literature regarding hotel investment, and provides hotel investors and analysts information regarding risk to aid decisions such as developing, purchasing, holding, or disposing of hotel assets.