Johnny T. Ottesen

(1) Background: We consider dormant, pre-cancerous states prevented from developing into cancer by the immune system. Inflammatory morbidity may compromise the immune system and cause the pre-cancer to escape into an actual cancerous development. The immune deficiency described is general, but the results may vary across specific cancers due to different variances (2) Methods: We formulate a general conceptual model to perform rigorous in silico consequence analysis. Relevant existing data for myeloproliferative malignancies from the literature are used to calibrate the in silico computations. (3) Results and conclusions: The hypothesis suggests a common physiological origin for many clinical and epidemiological observations in relation to cancers in general. Examples are the observed age-dependent prevalence for hematopoietic cancers, a general mechanism-based explanation for why the risk of cancer increases with age, and how somatic mutations in general, and specifically seen in screenings of citizens, sometimes are non-increased or even decrease when followed over time. The conceptual model is used to characterize different groups of citizens and patients, describing different treatment responses and development scenarios.

The hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) niche is a crucial driver of regeneration and malignancy. Its interaction with hematopoietic and malignant stem cells is highly complex and direct experimental observations are challenging. We here develop a mathematical model which helps relate processes in the niche to measurable changes of stem and non-stem cell counts. HSC attached to the niche are assumed to be quiescent. After detachment HSC become activated and divide or differentiate. To maintain their stemness, the progeny originating from division must reattach to the niche. We use mouse data from literature to parametrize the model. By combining mathematical analysis and computer simulations, we systematically investigate the impact of stem cell proliferation, differentiation, niche attachment, and detachment on clinically relevant scenarios. These include bone marrow transplantation, clonal competition, and eradication of malignant cells. According to our model, sampling of blood or bulk marrow provides only limited information about cellular interactions in the niche and the clonal composition of the stem cell population. Furthermore, we investigate how interference with processes in the stem cell niche could help to increase the effect of low-dose chemotherapy or to improve the homing of genetically engineered cells.