Jone P. Reistad

The auroral oval morphology has been investigated in previous studies presenting maps of average auroral precipitation. However, such distributions tend to emphasize auroral intensity rather than the actual extent of the auroral oval. We develop a statistical method to characterize the auroral oval morphology by using 20 years of electron energy flux measurements from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Special Sensor J (DMSP/SSJ); instead of relying on auroral oval boundaries, we derive the probability of observing aurora from a threshold of 2.10 9 eV/cm 2 /s/sr above which the total energy flux of electrons (in the energy range 1–30 keV) is defined as aurora. We then investigate the auroral occurrence probability (AOP) in the magnetic latitude‐magnetic local time (MLat‐MLT) sectors covered by DMSP for various conditions related to geomagnetic activity. Regardless of those conditions, the AOP distributions reveal a width asymmetry with a wider dawn‐to‐noon sector (06–12 MLT) compared to the dusk‐to‐midnight sector (18–24 MLT), the dawn preference getting even more pronounced as the geomagnetic activity decreases. In the context of an open magnetosphere, we investigate the relation between the observed extent asymmetry in the auroral oval and the magnetospheric plasma convection. Representing the plasma sheet magnetic flux as a one‐dimensional fluid subject to production on the nightside (closing of flux via reconnection) and loss on the dayside (opening of flux), we highlight similarities with the AOP in terms of MLT asymmetries. Finally, making use of this fluid model, we demonstrate that the corotation influence on the plasma convection pattern is consistent with the dawn‐dusk asymmetry observed in the AOP distributions.