Keisuke Kataoka

It remains elusive how driver mutations, including those detected in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), affect prognosis in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM). Here we performed targeted-capture sequencing using bone marrow plasma cells (BMPC) and ctDNA of 261 RRMM cases uniformly treated with ixazomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone in a multicenter, prospective, observational study. We detected 24 and 47 recurrently mutated genes in BMPC and ctDNA, respectively. In addition to clonal hematopoiesis-associated mutations, varying proportion of driver mutations, particularly TP53 mutations (59.2% of mutated cases), were present in only ctDNA, suggesting their subclonal origin. In univariable analyses, ctDNA mutations of KRAS, TP53, DIS3, BRAF, NRAS, and ATM were associated with worse progression-free survival (PFS). BMPC mutations of TP53 and KRAS were associated with inferior PFS, while KRAS mutations were prognostically relevant only when detected in both BMPC and ctDNA. A total number of ctDNA mutations in the six relevant genes was a strong prognostic predictor (2-year PFS rates: 57.3%, 22.7%, and 0% for 0, 1, and ≥ 2 mutations, respectively) and independent of clinical factors and plasma DNA concentration. Using the number of ctDNA mutations, plasma DNA concentration, and clinical factors, we developed a prognostic index (ctRRMM-PI), classifying patients into three categories with 2-year PFS rates of 57.9%, 28.6%, and 0%. Serial analysis of ctDNA mutations in 94 cases revealed that TP53 and KRAS mutations frequently emerge after therapy. Thus, we clarify the genetic characteristics and clonal architecture of ctDNA mutations and demonstrate their superiority over BMPC mutations for prognostic prediction in RRMM.