Matt Spick

The global COVID-19 pandemic resulted in widespread harms but also rapid advances in vaccine development, diagnostic testing, and treatment. As the disease moves to endemic status, the need to identify characteristic biomarkers of the disease for diagnostics or therapeutics has lessened, but lessons can still be learned to inform biomarker research in dealing with future pathogens. In this work, we test five sets of research-derived biomarkers against an independent targeted and quantitative Liquid Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry metabolomics dataset to evaluate how robustly these proposed panels would distinguish between COVID-19-positive and negative patients in a hospital setting. We further evaluate a crowdsourced panel comprising the COVID-19 metabolomics biomarkers most commonly mentioned in the literature between 2020 and 2023. The best-performing panel in the independent dataset—measured by F1 score (0.76) and AUROC (0.77)—included nine biomarkers: lactic acid, glutamate, aspartate, phenylalanine, β-alanine, ornithine, arachidonic acid, choline, and hypoxanthine. Panels comprising fewer metabolites performed less well, showing weaker statistical significance in the independent cohort than originally reported in their respective discovery studies. Whilst the studies reviewed here were small and may be subject to confounders, it is desirable that biomarker panels be resilient across cohorts if they are to find use in the clinic, highlighting the importance of assessing the robustness and reproducibility of metabolomics analyses in independent populations.