Melinda A. Webster

Melt ponds forming on Arctic sea ice in summer significantly reduce the surface albedo and impact the heat and mass balance of the sea ice. Therefore, their areal coverage, which can undergo rapid change, is crucial to monitor. We present a revised method to extract melt pond fraction (MPF) from Sentinel‐2 satellite imagery, which is evaluated by MPF products from higher‐resolution satellite and helicopter‐borne imagery. The analysis of melt pond evolution during the MOSAiC campaign in summer 2020, shows a split of the Central Observatory (CO) into a level ice and a highly deformed ice part, the latter of which exhibits exceptional early melt pond formation compared to the vicinity. Average CO MPFs are 17% before and 23% after the major drainage. Arctic‐wide analysis of MPF for years 2017–2021 shows a consistent seasonal cycle in all regions and years.

Comparing helicopter‐borne surface temperature maps in winter and optical orthomosaics in summer from the year‐long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition, we find a strong geometric correlation between warm anomalies in winter and melt pond location the following summer. Warm anomalies are associated with thinner snow and ice, that is, surface depression and refrozen leads, that allow for water accumulation during melt. Warm surface temperature anomalies in January were 0.3–2.5 K warmer on sea ice that later formed melt ponds. A one‐dimensional steady‐state thermodynamic model shows that the observed surface temperature differences are in line with the observed ice thickness and snow depth. We demonstrate the potential of seasonal prediction of summer melt pond location and coverage from winter surface temperature observations. A threshold‐based classification achieves a correct classification for 41% of the melt ponds.

Arctic sea ice might be preserved if its albedo could be increased. To this end, it has been proposed to spread hollow glass microspheres (HGMs) over the ice. We assess the radiative forcing that would result, by considering the areal coverages and spectral albedos of eight representative surface types, as well as the incident solar radiation, cloud properties, and spectral radiative properties of HGMs. HGMs can raise the albedo of new ice, but new ice occurs in autumn and winter when there is little sunlight. In spring the ice is covered by high‐albedo, thick snow. In summer the sunlight is intense, and the snow melts, so a substantial area is covered by dark ponds of meltwater, which could be an attractive target for attempted brightening. However, prior studies show that wind blows HGMs to the pond edges. A thin layer of HGMs has about 10% absorptance for solar radiation, so HGMs would darken any surfaces with albedo >0.61, such as snow‐covered ice. The net result is the opposite of what was intended: spreading HGMs would warm the Arctic climate and speed sea‐ice loss. If non‐absorbing HGMs could be manufactured, and if they could be transported and distributed without contamination by dark substances, they could cool the climate. The maximum benefit would be achieved by distribution during the month of May, resulting in an annual average radiative forcing for the Arctic Ocean of −3 Wm −2 if 360 megatons of HGMs were spread onto the ice annually.