Michael F. Gensheimer

PURPOSE For patients with cancer and their doctors, prognosis is important for choosing treatments and supportive care. Oncologists' life expectancy estimates are often inaccurate, and many patients are not aware of their general prognosis. Machine learning (ML) survival models could be useful in the clinic, but there are potential concerns involving accuracy, provider training, and patient involvement. We conducted a qualitative study to learn about patient and oncologist views on potentially using a ML model for patient care. METHODS Patients with metastatic cancer (n = 15) and their family members (n = 5), radiation oncologists (n = 5), and medical oncologists (n = 5) were recruited from a single academic health system. Participants were shown an anonymized report from a validated ML survival model for another patient, which included a predicted survival curve and a list of variables influencing predicted survival. Semistructured interviews were conducted using a script. RESULTS Every physician and patient who completed their interview said that they would want the option for the model to be used in their practice or care. Physicians stated that they would use an AI prognosis model for patient triage and increasing patient understanding, but had concerns about accuracy and explainability. Patients generally said that they would trust model results completely if presented by their physician but wanted to know if the model was being used in their care. Some reacted negatively to being shown a median survival prediction. CONCLUSION Patients and physicians were supportive of use of the model in the clinic, but had various concerns, which should be addressed as predictive models are increasingly deployed in practice.