Michael R. Allshouse

Surface convergence in the ocean is associated with accumulation of buoyant pollutants as well as with vertical transport that is important to biological activity. Such surface convergence regions are marked by a high dilation rate, i.e., the finite time Lagrangian average divergence. Dilation-rate observations are most easily derived from the change of the area encompassed by a drifter swarm over time. The technological advances that have enabled the deployment of large numbers of drifters in a single experiment have raised new questions about optimal deployment strategies for extracting dilation-rate information with acceptable accuracy and as much spatial coverage as possible. Using a submesoscale-resolving operational model of the Mediterranean Sea, we analyze synthetic trajectories of drifter polygons to evaluate the impact of the number of drifters and their initial separation on the accuracy of the resulting dilation-rate estimates. The results confirm that estimates improve as the circumradius of the polygon decreases and as more drifters are added, but with only a marginal improvement for drifter polygons containing more than four drifters. Moreover, GPS positions obtained from drifters in the ocean are subject to uncertainty on the order of 2–50 m, and when this uncertainty is taken into account, an optimal circumradius can be identified that balances uncertainty from position measurements with that from the area approximations. Significance Statement Locating regions of convergence over a finite time interval on the ocean surface can help in pollution mitigation, locating biological hotspots, and even search-and-rescue operations. Finite time convergence can be quantified using the dilation rate, but it is hard to measure in the ocean. Hence, we present a method to estimate the dilation rate using trajectories of drifters, which are instruments widely used by oceanographers during field experiments to understand the local flow features. We show that even though the drifter-based dilation rates are prone to error as a result of a finite number of drifters and limited GPS accuracy, the estimates locate around 90% of the strongest convergent features in our model.