Nathan G. F. Reaver

The mechanisms underlying observed global patterns of partitioning precipitation ( ) to evapotranspiration ( ) and runoff ( ) are controversially debated. We test the hypothesis that asynchrony between climatic water supply and demand is sufficient to explain spatio‐temporal variability of water availability. We developed a simple analytical model for that is determined by four dimensionless characteristics of intra‐annual water supply and demand asynchrony. The analytical model, populated with gridded climate data, accurately predicted global runoff patterns within 2%–4% of independent estimates from global climate models, with spatial patterns closely correlated to observations ( ). The supply‐demand asynchrony hypothesis provides a physically based explanation for variability of water availability using easily measurable characteristics of climate. The model revealed widespread responsiveness of water budgets to changes in climate asynchrony in almost every global region. Furthermore, the analytical model using global averages independently reproduced the Budyko curve ( ) providing theoretical foundation for this widely used empirical relationship.