Nikolaos Dagres

Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a global health problem with high morbidity and mortality. Catheter ablation (CA) can reduce AF burden and symptoms, but AF recurrence (AFr) remains an issue. Simple AFr predictors like P-wave duration (PWD) could help improve AF therapy. This updated meta-analysis reviews the increasing evidence for the association of AFr with PWD and offers practical implications. Methods and results Publication databases were systematically searched and cohort studies reporting PWD and/or morphology at baseline and AFr after CA were included. Advanced interatrial block (aIAB) was defined as PWD ≥ 120 ms and biphasic morphology in inferior leads. Random-effects analysis was performed using the Review Manager 5.3 and R programs after study selection, quality assessment, and data extraction, to report odds ratio (OR) and confidence intervals. : Among 4175 patients in 22 studies, 1138 (27%) experienced AFr. Patients with AFr had longer PWD with a mean pooled difference of 7.8 ms (19 studies, P < 0.001). Pooled OR was 2.04 (1.16–3.58) for PWD > 120 ms (13 studies, P = 0.01), 2.42 (1.12–5.21) for PWD > 140 ms (2 studies, P = 0.02), 3.97 (1.79–8.85) for aIAB (5 studies, P < 0.001), and 10.89 (4.53–26.15) for PWD > 150 ms (4 studies, P < 0.001). There was significant heterogeneity but no publication bias detected. Conclusion P-wave duration is an independent predictor for AF recurrence after left atrium ablation. The AFr risk is increasing exponentially with PWD prolongation. This could facilitate risk stratification by identifying high-risk patients (aIAB, PWD > 150 ms) and adjusting follow up or interventions.