Pascal Crépey

We analysed the influenza epidemic that occurred in Australia during the 2022 winter using an age‐structured dynamic transmission model, which accounts for past epidemics to estimate the population susceptibility to an influenza infection. We applied the same model to five European countries. Our analysis suggests Europe might experience an early and moderately large influenza epidemic. Also, differences may arise between countries, with Germany and Spain experiencing larger epidemics, than France, Italy and the United Kingdom, especially in children.

Significance The COVID-19 pandemic is inducing significant stress on health care structures, which can be quickly saturated with negative consequences for patients. As hospitalization comes late in the infection history of a patient, early predictors—such as the number of cases, mobility, climate, and vaccine coverage—could improve forecasts of health care demand. Predictive models taken individually have their pros and cons, and it is advantageous to combine the predictions in an ensemble model. Here, we design an ensemble that combines several models to anticipate French COVID-19 health care needs up to 14 days ahead. We retrospectively test this model, identify the best predictors of the growth rate of hospital admissions, and propose a promising approach to facilitate the planning of hospital activity.