S. C. Peatman

Cold surges are synoptic weather systems that occur over the Maritime Continent during the boreal winter. They are characterized by the strengthening of prevailing low‐level northerly to north‐easterly winds, temperature falls of a few degrees over several days, and in some cases, heavy prolonged rainfall and flooding. We investigate the synoptic structure and development of cold surges through composites of dry, moderate and wet surges. Each surge category is defined by the distribution of precipitation averaged within a specified domain over the equatorial South China Sea. Dry surges are characterized by cross‐equatorial flow and positive mean sea‐level pressure anomalies that reach the Southern Hemisphere, and enhanced descent or weaker ascent. Wet surges are characterized by limited cross‐equatorial flow, low‐pressure anomalies over the equator, and enhanced moisture and ascent. The local diurnal precipitation patterns are consistent with the convection being controlled by the mid‐tropospheric buoyancy of an idealized entraining plume. This buoyancy diagnostic suggests that wet surges are characterized by a moister free troposphere because this reduces the effect of entrainment and allows deep convection to develop. On the large scale, the environment in which wet or dry cold surges form is closely related to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase. Dry and moderate surges occur predominantly in the suppressed phases of the MJO, while wet surges often herald the eastward propagation of the MJO convective envelope. Finally, convectively active phases in the Australian monsoon are more likely following dry cold surges, and are sometimes associated with the MJO.