Sameh Al-Shihabi

Dubai, a popular vacation spot, has launched an initiative to reduce reliance on single-use plastic water bottles. Tourists in Dubai widely utilize PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate) water bottles, and significant quantities of greenhouse gases (GHG) are released during the production and disposal of PET bottles. In response to Dubai’s initiative, some hotels eliminated PET bottles and substituted them with environmentally favorable alternatives. These hotels are considered adopters of the initiative, while other hotels that might follow are imitators. Thus, innovation diffusion theory (IDT) is used in this work to forecast the transition of hotels to non-PET bottles. The diffusion of this new behavior is simulated using a system dynamic (SD) model, where factors pushing imitators to abolish PET bottles are found using the Delphi method and hotel surveying. Moreover, the importance of each identified factor is found using an analytical hierarchical process (AHP). Since hotels are divided into several categories based on their service quality, the analysis shows that hotels are affected by other hotels in their category or better categories. Using this conceptual understanding, Bass and generalized Bass modeling are used in the SD model to study how imitating hotels will follow the adopters. Best-, average-, and worst-case scenarios are studied to help decision-makers understand what to expect in the future. For the best- and average-case scenarios, the SD simulation shows that all hotels will potentially have abolished PET bottles in 25 years. However, only 16% of hotels will have cancelled PET bottles in 25 years if the worst-case scenario occurs; thus, decision-makers need to intervene to expedite the process.