Susan E Hankinson

Context Psychological distress has been linked to diabetes risk. Few population-based, epidemiologic studies have investigated the potential molecular mechanisms (eg, metabolic dysregulation) underlying this association. Objective To evaluate the association between a metabolomic signature for psychological distress and diabetes risk. Methods We conducted a nested case-control study of plasma metabolomics and diabetes risk in the Nurses' Health Study, including 728 women (mean age: 55.2 years) with incident diabetes and 728 matched controls. Blood samples were collected between 1989 and 1990 and incident diabetes was diagnosed between 1992 and 2008. Based on our prior work, we calculated a weighted plasma metabolite-based distress score (MDS) comprised of 19 metabolites. We used conditional logistic regression accounting for matching factors and other diabetes risk factors to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for diabetes risk according to MDS. Results After adjusting for sociodemographic factors, family history of diabetes, and health behaviors, the OR (95% CI) for diabetes risk across quintiles of the MDS was 1.00 (reference) for Q1, 1.16 (0.77, 1.73) for Q2, 1.30 (0.88, 1.91) for Q3, 1.99 (1.36, 2.92) for Q4, and 2.47 (1.66, 3.67) for Q5. Each SD increase in MDS was associated with 36% higher diabetes risk (95% CI: 1.21, 1.54; P-trend <.0001). This association was moderately attenuated after additional adjustment for body mass index (comparable OR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.35; P-trend = .02). The MDS explained 17.6% of the association between self-reported psychological distress (defined as presence of depression or anxiety symptoms) and diabetes risk (P = .04). Conclusion MDS was significantly associated with diabetes risk in women. These results suggest that differences in multiple lipid and amino acid metabolites may underlie the observed association between psychological distress and diabetes risk.