Taulant Muka

Objective To develop and externally validate a 10-year risk prediction model of natural onset of menopause using ready-to-use predictors. Design Population-based prospective cohort study. Participants Community-dwelling, premenopausal women aged 28 years and older enrolled in the Swiss (CoLaus) and Dutch (PREVEND) study. Main outcome measure Incidence of self-reported natural menopause. Model development Based on existing literature, 11 predictors were tested in this study. The CoLaus cohort was used to develop the model by applying the backward-elimination approach and Bayesian Model Averaging. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping. External validation was performed using data from the PREVEND cohort and recalibrating the baseline survival estimate. C-statistics, calibration slopes, and expected/observed probabilities were calculated as measures of model internal and/or external performances. Results The final analysis included 750 and 1032 premenopausal women from the CoLaus and the PREVEND cohorts, respectively. Among them, 445 (59%) from CoLaus and 387 (38%) from PREVEND experienced menopause over a median follow-up of 10.7 and 9 years, respectively. The final model included age, alcohol consumption, smoking status, education level, and systolic blood pressure. Upon external calibration in the PREVEND cohort, the model exhibited good discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.888 and an expected/observed probability of 0.82. Conclusion We present the first internally and externally validated prediction model of natural menopause onset using readily available predictors. Validation of our model to other populations is needed.

Background: Statin therapy is recommended for patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD). However, PAD patients with polyvascular (PV) extent remain threatened by an increased residual cardiovascular (CV) risk. Purpose: To investigate the association of prescribed statin therapy and mortality in PAD patients with or without PV extent. Methods: A single-center retrospective longitudinal observational study originating from a consecutive registry with 1380 symptomatic PAD patients over a mean observational time of 60 ± 32 months. The association of atherosclerotic extent and statin use (PAD, plus one additional region (CAD or CeVD, [+1 V]), +2 vascular regions (+CAD and CeVD [+2 V]) with the risk of all-cause mortality was evaluated using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounding factors. Results: The mean age of the study’s participants was 72.0 ± 11.7 years, with 36% being female. PAD patients with PV extent [+1 V] and [+2 V] were older and suffered from diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia more often; they, too, had more severely impaired kidney function (all p < 0.0001) compared to patients with PAD only. PAD patients with PV [+1 V] and [+2 V] received better statin medication and reached the recommended LDL-C target compared to PAD-only patients (p < 0.001). Despite better statin treatment, the rate of all-cause mortality was higher in PV patients than in PAD-only patients (PAD only: 13%; [+1 V]: 22%; [+2 V]: 35%; p < 0.0001). Conclusion: PV patients receive better statin therapy than PAD-only patients but nevertheless still have higher mortality rates. Future studies are needed to explore whether more aggressive LDL-lowering treatment for PAD patients may be translated into better prognosis.