Tesfay G. Gebremicael

The aim of this study was to provide practical suggestions for land use regulation to mitigate the impacts of intense urbanization using integrated modeling. To achieve effective urbanization management, it is essential to quantify the habitats of critical species and predict their dynamics in response to urbanization impacts in the future. In this study, we developed an integrated bird-habitat modeling that combines maximum entropy and patch-generating land use simulation based on a field survey of bird populations to characterize the habitat dynamics of birds in the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) under urbanization impacts. Our findings revealed the following: (1) The YRE experienced fundamental fragmentation from 2000. (2) The year 2010 was a turning point, and from 2000 to 2037, habitats for all bird species tended to overlap and fragment, and decreased from 66% to 45%, resulting in a loss of about 4340 km2. (3) The maintenance of a buffer area of 300 m around built-up areas was crucial for preserving bird habitats. Based on the identified variables, the hotspots of birds’ habitats were prioritized and the regulation measures to mitigate urbanization impacts are proposed in YRE.