Thomas E. Martin

Many tropical species show declining populations. The pantropical order Trogoniformes has 76% of its species ranked as declining, reflecting a worldwide problem. Here, we report on the reproductive ecology and life history traits of the declining and near‐threatened old world Whitehead's Trogon ( Harpactes whiteheadi ), the declining new world Collared Trogon ( Trogon collaris ), and the stable Masked Trogon ( T. personatus ). We also reviewed the literature on reproductive ecology and life history traits of trogons to assess possible commonalities that might help explain population declines. We found that the declining Whitehead's and Collared Trogons had reasonable nest success (32% and 25%, respectively), while the stable Masked Trogon had poor reproductive success (9%), all contrary to population trends. However, the limited literature data suggested that poor reproductive success may be common among trogons, which may contribute to population declines. Parents fed young at a low rate and had long on‐bouts for incubation and nestling warming that reduced activity at the nest, as favored by high nest predation risk over evolutionary time. We found that young fledged from the nest with poorly developed wings, as also favored by high nest predation risk. Evolved nestling periods among trogon species suggests that poor wing development is likely common. Wing development has been shown to affect juvenile survival after leaving the nest. The poor wing development may be an important contributor to population declines that deserves more attention. Evolved life history traits are important to recognize as creating population vulnerabilities in a changing world.

Many ecological processes are profoundly influenced by abiotic factors, such as temperature and snow. However, despite strong evidence linking shifts in these ecological processes to corresponding shifts in abiotic factors driven by climate change, the mechanisms connecting population size to season‐specific climate drivers are little understood. Using a 21‐year dataset and a Bayesian state space model, we identified biologically informed seasonal climate covariates that influenced densities of snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus ), a cold‐adapted boreal herbivore. We found that snow and temperature had strong but conflicting season‐dependent effects. Reduced snow duration in spring and fall and warmer summers were associated with lowered hare density, whereas warmer winters were associated with increased density. When modeled simultaneously and under two climate change scenarios, the negative effects of reduced fall and spring snow duration and warmer summers overwhelm the positive effect of warmer winters, producing projected population declines. Ultimately, the contrasting population‐level impacts of climate change across seasons emphasize the critical need to examine the entire annual climate cycle to understand potential long‐term population consequences of climate change.