Alessandro Mannucci

INTRODUCTION: Individuals with familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) have an almost 20% lifetime risk of duodenal adenocarcinoma, currently the leading cause of death in FAP. The Spigelman staging system provides guidance on the surveillance intervals and timing of prophylactic surgery. Still, its accuracy in predicting duodenal and papillary cancer development has not been systematically evaluated. We investigated the sensitivity and cancer risk of the Spigelman stages. METHODS: We performed a systematic review on PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane and used a random-effects model to pool effect sizes. RESULTS: After removing duplicate entries, we screened 1,170 records and included 27 studies for quantitative analysis. Once duodenal polyposis reaches Spigelman stage IV, the risk of duodenal and papillary cancers increased to 25% (95% confidence interval [CI] 12%–45%). However, the sensitivity of Spigelman stage IV for these cancers was low (51%, 95% CI 42%–60%), especially for papillary adenocarcinoma (39%, 95% CI 16%–68%). We investigated the reasons behind these low values and observed that duodenal cancer risk factors included polyps >10 mm, polyp count >20, and polyps with high-grade dysplasia. Risk factors associated with papillary cancer included a papilla with high-grade dysplasia or >10 mm. The evidence on other risk factors was inconclusive. DISCUSSION: The current Spigelman staging system had a low sensitivity for duodenal and papillary adenocarcinomas. Two Spigelman variables (duodenal villous histology and polyp count) and the lack of papilla-specific variables likely contributed to the low sensitivity values for duodenal and papillary cancers, respectively. While clinicians may be familiar with its current form, there is an urgent need to update it.