Andrew Blakers

The rapid fall in the cost of solar photovoltaics and wind energy offers a pathway to the deep decarbonization of energy at an affordable price. Off-river pumped hydro energy storage and batteries provide mature and large-scale storage to balance variable generation and demand while minimizing environmental and social impacts. High-voltage inter-regional interconnection and dispatchable capacity (existing hydro and geothermal) can help balance supply and demand. This work investigates an Indonesian energy decarbonization pathway using mostly solar photovoltaics. An hourly energy balance analysis using ten years of meteorological data was performed for a hypothetical solar-dominated Indonesian electricity system for the consumption of 3, 6 and 10 megawatt-hours (MWh) per capita per year (compared with current consumption of 1 MWh per capita per year). Pumped hydro provides overnight and longer storage. Strong interconnection between islands was found to be unnecessary for Indonesia, contrary to findings from similar modelling in countries at higher latitudes. Storage requirements for power and energy were found to be smaller than three kilowatts and 30–45 kilowatt-hours per person, respectively. Introducing gas turbines (burning hydrogen or synthetic methane) contributing around 1% of annual generation reduced the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by 14% and halved the storage requirements by allowing the system to ride through prolonged cloudy periods at lower cost. This work showed that Indonesia’s vast solar potential combined with its vast capacity for off-river pumped hydro energy storage could readily achieve 100% renewable electricity at low cost. The LCOE for a balanced solar-dominated system in Indonesia was found to be in the range of 77–102 USD/megawatt-hour.