David Schoeman

Growing evidence suggests that liana competition with trees is threatening the global carbon sink by slowing the recovery of forests following disturbance. A recent theory based on local and regional evidence further proposes that the competitive success of lianas over trees is driven by interactions between forest disturbance and climate. We present the first global assessment of liana–tree relative performance in response to forest disturbance and climate drivers. Using an unprecedented dataset, we analysed 651 vegetation samples representing 26,538 lianas and 82,802 trees from 556 unique locations worldwide, derived from 83 publications. Results show that lianas perform better relative to trees (increasing liana‐to‐tree ratio) when forests are disturbed, under warmer temperatures and lower precipitation and towards the tropical lowlands. We also found that lianas can be a critical factor hindering forest recovery in disturbed forests experiencing liana‐favourable climates, as chronosequence data show that high competitive success of lianas over trees can persist for decades following disturbances, especially when the annual mean temperature exceeds 27.8°C, precipitation is less than 1614 mm and climatic water deficit is more than 829 mm. These findings reveal that degraded tropical forests with environmental conditions favouring lianas are disproportionately more vulnerable to liana dominance and thus can potentially stall succession, with important implications for the global carbon sink, and hence should be the highest priority to consider for restoration management.

Meat quality is of paramount importance in the fisheries and aquaculture industries, but the quality of seafood can be affected by environmental variability and change, creating uncertainties in the delivery of consistent, high‐end product. Reports from fishers operating in an Australian fishery catching broadbill swordfish ( Xiphias gladius ) suggest that anomalously warm waters are linked with myoliquefaction of muscle tissue. The condition affects the marketability of fish by turning the meat into a soft, mushy texture post‐mortem and is caused by infection by the myxozoan parasite Kudoa musculoliquefaciens . Here, we combine microscopy, molecular techniques and ecological modelling to explore potential environmental drivers of the prevalence and intensity of K. musculoliquefaciens in swordfish, as a first step in understanding how a warming ocean might exacerbate the risk of harvesting an infected swordfish and the resultant potential risk of myoliquefaction. We develop predictive dynamic risk surfaces on seasonal timescales, with results revealing both the likelihood of harvesting an infected swordfish and the intensity of parasite load increase during the Austral summer. The prevalence of the parasite further increases in the region dominated by the East Australian Current, when locally warm areas are atypically cool and when average monthly temperatures are more variable. These findings provide information useful in predicting the conditions under which the risk of harvesting infected swordfish might be intensified, enabling adaptation to climate change impacts and optimisation of decision‐making when fishing under risky conditions.