Julia Höhler

Insects and their derivatives are increasingly recognised as a (more) sustainable and circular protein source for feed and food. The European insect industry is growing, but upscaling remains a challenge due to multiple uncertainties. This study analysed the robustness of three different business models for insect production for feed and food in six future scenarios. Business models and scenarios were identified through literature review and refined through expert elicitation (n = 5). The three business models comprised: (1) full-liner black soldier fly production for pet food , (2) decentralised black soldier fly production for aquafeed , and (3) mealworm processing cooperative for food . The six scenarios addressed uncertainties around the use of side streams, insect welfare, energy, and sustainability. We used the Business Model Stress Test in four focus groups with experts (n = 23) from six European countries. Heat maps for three distinct business models were presented, detailing the impacts of scenarios on business model components. Experts regarded full-liner black soldier fly production for pet food and mealworm processing cooperative for food as more robust than decentralised black soldier fly production for aquafeed . These differences were mainly related to the customer segments , value proposition , revenue structure , and cost structure . In full-liner black soldier fly production for pet food , stringent regulations were expected to have no negative impact on business model components, in contrast to liberal regulations with anticipated adverse effects. Examination of regulatory uncertainty indicated strict legislation’s advantageous expected impact on consumer trust in the pet food and food market. High energy prices were anticipated as a major challenge across all business models, while improved sustainability compliance was viewed positively. The classification in relatively more or less robust business models serves as a guide for business and policy in further developing the insect sector for feed and food in Europe.