Nandin-Erdene Tsendbazar

The pathway, direction, and potential drivers of the evolution in global arid ecosystems are of importance for maintaining the stability and sustainability of the global ecosystem. Based on the Climate Change Initiative Land Cover dataset (CCILC), in this study, four indicators of land cover change (LCC) were calculated, i.e., regional change intensity (RCI), rate of change in land cover (CR), evolutionary direction index (EDI), and artificial change percentage (ACP), to progressively derive the intensity, rate, evolutionary direction, and anthropogenic interferences of global arid ecosystems. The LCC from 1992 to 2020 and from 28 consecutive pair-years was observed at the global, continental, and country scales to examine spatiotemporal evolution in the Earth’s arid ecosystems. The following main results were obtained: (1) Global arid ecosystems experienced positive evolution despite complex LCCs and anthropogenic interferences. Cautious steps to avoid potential issues caused by rapid urbanization and farmland expansion are necessary. (2) The arid ecosystems in Australia, Central Asia, and southeastern Africa generally improved, as indicated by EDI values, but those in North America were degraded, with 41.1% of LCCs associated with urbanization or farming. The arid ecosystems in South America also deteriorated, but 83.4% of LCCs were in natural land covers. The arid ecosystems in Europe slightly improved with overall equivalent changes in natural and artificial land covers. (3) Global arid ecosystems experienced three phases of change based on RCI values: ‘intense’ (1992–1998), ‘stable’ (1998–2014), and ‘intense’ (2014–2020). In addition, two phases of evolution based on EDI values were observed: ‘deterioration’ (1992–2002) and ‘improvement’ (2002–2020). The ACP values indicated that urbanization and farming activities contributed increasingly less to global dryland change since 1992. These findings provide critical insights into the evolution of global arid ecosystems based on analyses of LCCs and will be beneficial for sustainable development of arid ecosystems worldwide within the context of ongoing climate change.