Shabbir Ahmad

Fiscal and local content policies aimed at promoting linkages between mining and other economic sectors have been informed by theories built on historical observations dating back to the 1950s. This paper contends that there is a need to rethink theories about mining-based economic linkages and the prospects for structural change based on an improved understanding of existing and potential inter-sectoral linkages. Using the input–output tables for Tanzania and Botswana, we apply the Partial Hypothetical Extraction Method within the Leontief and Gosh input–output frameworks to examine the linkages between the mining and quarrying sector and other economic sectors within these two economies. We find that, for Botswana, possible linkage pathways lie in scaling-up coal, soda ash and salt mining and investing in glass, polymer, and chemicals manufacturing. For Tanzania, opportunities for linkage pathways lie with the mining and manufacturing of non-metallic and construction materials as well as metallic minerals and natural gas. For both countries, the prospects for transforming their economies away from a heavy reliance on mineral extraction hinges on leveraging extractives for infrastructure, innovative technology, and technical skills, as well as capturing business opportunities, knowledge, and financial returns to invest in more diversified economic activities.