Guoyuan Wu

Effective incentive strategies have played a major role in the electrification of on-road vehicles. Similar approaches to the off-road sector will be needed to continue decarbonizing the transportation sector. Estimating cost-effectiveness with given incentive funds is crucial to successfully develop and implement financial incentive strategies. Because of the lack of cost information for electric off-road equipment, forecasting cost-effectiveness of electrifying the off-road fleet is not feasible. We developed cost projection models for major components of off-road equipment and combined them into an equipment cost simulation tool. This simulation tool was then used to estimate NO x , particulate matter, and CO 2 emission-based cost-effectiveness when diesel off-road equipment is replaced with equivalent electric equipment. Use of the developed cost-effectiveness framework in developing incentive strategies was also demonstrated. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to address potential variations of the assumptions made for projecting the cost of components and the resulting cost-effectiveness estimates. The framework demonstrated in this paper will inform governmental inventive funding programs to design the most cost-effective strategies, considering equipment vocation, model year, and usage.